Tag: UBS


What is an “emerging market” anyway?

July 7th, 2009 — 12:21pm
India is one. So is China. And likewise Brazil. Sure, we use the term to describe the economies of all these countries, but what is an “emerging market” anyway?

 

Though a loose definition, countries are considered to be “emerging” when their economies undergo a rapid succession of developments and reforms. They have more modern governments and are more industrialized than developing countries, but aren’t yet considered developed – placing them in a state of transition. These are countries – big or small – which have short operating histories in global financial markets but, because of increasing industrial growth, have “emerged” onto the global scene. They are also said to be “labor rich and capital poor”, implying relatively cheap labor costs and hence are attractive to manufacturers and developers, who, if they decide to invest in areas like infrastructure and machinery, create the potential for significant economic growth.

 

Such countries account for 80 percent of the global population and approximately 20 percent of the world’s economies. These include India, China, Mexico and Brazil, among others in Latin America, South-East Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe. Numerous terms have been thrown around to describe the largest developing countries, such as BRIC, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China.

 

As they become flooded with foreign investors, emerging market countries see increased opportunity, with rising employment and production levels, increased national income and, eventually, a lessening of the gap between their own country and the developed world.
Foreign investors tend to view emerging markets as an opportunity too – one for expanding and diversifying their investment portfolios. Because there’s always the chance that the development of an emerging economy will slow or reverse (due to circumstances such as civil war, nationalization or other government changes), they are risky investments. And with risky investments come high rewards – if investors bid on the right market.

 

It’s a double-edged sword for an emerging market country to open its doors to the rest of the world. On the one hand, it brings them closer to the developed world. Yet, on the other, it exposes them not only these new work ethics, but to new cultures as well, which can change the very fabric of the emerging country’s society.

2 comments » | 工作總結

雜記20090627

June 27th, 2009 — 3:39pm

很久沒有写杂记了。来了UBS快一个月了,发现IT实际上是很简单的活,IT的project management就更简单了。相较之下还是我在啤酒厂的工作挑战性更加大,一方面是因为我在AB待了7个多月,人家把我当个正式员工对待。在这里只有2个月,人家还是把你当实习生,待遇不一样。我总归感觉假如把UBS整个IT部门砍掉,都是没有问题的。

每天上班的时候都要穿过华尔街,走到世贸大厦(的遗址),然后坐联通纽约和新泽西之间的PATH。因为世贸中心仍旧是一个大坑,唯一通向PATH车站的是一条羊肠小道,顿时让我想起了300里的“hot gate”:成千上万的穿着西装的人们从新泽西涌向纽约。只有一小部分人像我是反方向走的,每天要逆着人流往前挤。有一天早上还被一个NYPD(警察)逮住,说是要抽样搜包,发现我包里有两瓶水,顿时起了疑心,把我当作是恐怖分子。看了又看那哥们跟我说:try to keep yourself hydrated, will ya? (尽量不要让你身体缺水)

我还是比较喜欢办公室里的view的,一眼望出去就是曼哈顿的金融中心,尽管那两栋标志性建筑已经不见了,但整个金融中心看出去还是密密麻麻,好不壮观。而且这边的空气更好,住起来更舒服,房租价格却不菲,在全美房价不景气的情况下这里的房价5年里已经番了四番。

lower manhattan

lower manhattan

swan

my office building

上图就是我的办公大楼

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那天在给一个刚刚被lay off的同事举办farewell party的时候DJ突然把音乐切掉了,然后指向大屏幕,大屏幕是FOX News,巨大的breaking news: Michael Jackson has passed away。然后DJ就开始大放Thriller,之后的三天,我走到哪里,不管是哪个店,到处都在放MJ的音乐。iTunes的在线音乐商店里十大top albums里有六个都是michael生前的album。想想真是可笑:MJ啊MJ,你生前大家都在骂你是变态,强奸幼年儿童。你一死全世界都开始悼念你,没人再提及你是不是pedafile了。

今天早上看纽约时报上还说MJ生前欠债的统计已经是四亿美元,这个数字还在增加,看来他欠的债跟美国政府欠的债一样复杂,纠结。

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更多high line照片:

the pattern

nothern spur

1 comment » | 生活|Life

What is “deleveraging” anyway?

June 10th, 2009 — 9:30am

 

You will be familiar with the term “deleveraging”, but do you have any idea what it actually means? If someone asked you to define it, could you?

 

Well, even if you can’t, you’re not alone in not fully understanding the meaning of all the financial terms currently in circulation. To help, Compass is launching a new series to explain frequently misunderstood investment terms. From time to time, we’ll take a financial term and demystify its meaning.

 

So, back to deleveraging. What is it?

 

Simply put, deleveraging is the unwinding of debt. In the business world, companies seeking to grow often take on large amounts of debt, or leverage, enabling them to spend more in order to achieve that growth. But debt is risky business. If the risk becomes too great for the company to bear or the growth attempt fails and the company cannot repay its debts – something which could be disastrous for its reputation - it’s stuck in a pretty sticky situation. Where is that money going to come from?

 

The answer is deleveraging – winding down debt by selling it off or by selling off some of the company’s unattractive assets at a hugely discounted price to raise the money. It is always the garish sweaters which feature heavily in the end of season clothes sales.  But some bargain hunters will buy them in the end if the discount is deep enough. This is what companies hope to achieve. They may not make as much as they had expected to, but at least they’ll make something, as long as they can find the right buyers.

 

Which leads to the next problem. Deleveraging is frequently seen by investors as a red flag, a signal that perhaps they shouldn’t put their money into that company but rather take it elsewhere. But where? This is where the world finds itself today, but this time it is households and financial entities who are in debt, all trying to recoup their losses by deleveraging, but in doing so, looking less and less attractive to investors and creditors. And the result? A lot of desperate sellers but hardly any buyers – a situation which can lead to decline in activity across the economy, more commonly known as a recession. But we’ll cover that next time.

1 comment » | 工作總結

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